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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd